San Jose Short Sale Agent: Silicon Valley Foreclosure Prevention Specialists

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_14524392

Unfortunately we set a 30 year record in January 2010: more people are out of jobs than they have in 30 years up  from 12.3% in December 2009, but there seems to be an upswing  as 32,500 people gained employment in the same month.  A mixed message.

Regardless of how we interpret the data, one thing is very clear: there is a direct correlation to reduction in home buying behavior and unemployment. Regardless of what people may say about homes being more affordable now than ever before, if there is no sense of security in employment front, there will be no home purchases!

So what does this mean?  All this effort in providing tax credit incentives is great, but unless and until there is a concerted effort by the State and  Federal Governments to tackle the issue of unemployment and more importantly, to improve this number, there will be no increase in home purchasing activity.

In fact, as long as more people are losing jobs, they will start or continue to fall behind in making their mortgage payments, which will increase  the activities in the distressed properties market, which will result in home prices falling, which then will continue this drag on the economy as industries related to real estate continue to suffer and lay off more employees.  Truly a vicious circle.  Right now, 1 out of 6 home owners is behind in their mortgage payments.

So we all should pressure our politicians in D.C. to stop playing politics and get at the job for which they were elected: improve the economy by creating more jobs.  Everything else is secondary.

As a San Jose Shot Sale Agent, I have evangelized about the benefits and importance of short sales in comparison to foreclosures.  However, the volume of short sales relative to the rest of the distressed properties has catapulted into number one position according to Campbell Surveys.   This will come as no surprise to buyers who are in the market right now in Silicon Valley as First Time Homebuyers are snapping them up like hot cakes.

Unfortunately, until we resolve California’s double digit unemployment rate, we will continue to have a steady flow of  short sales for possibly years to come.

In less than a week 2009 will leave us behind and we will greet the new decade by welcoming 2010.   In the last 3 years of the past decade, we have seen a dramatic shift in the real estate market place.  A shift that most of us could not fathom in the beginning of the passing decade; yet reality bit us hard and we got to live through an epic correction in the real estate market place.

Are we out of it yet?  Of course not. Have we by-passed the worst of it?  Probably.

However, as long as Silicon Valley’s unemployment rate remains above 11% and the dreaded shadow inventory along with the toxic option ARM fiasco about to recast in the coming couple of years, things will not be back to normal and we will not be completely out of the woods for a few more years until the market fully corrects itself by ridding itself of the excess capacity of distressed properties.

But, I don’t want to imply that there is only gloom in the horizon.  According to newly released sales data from CAR (California Association of Realtors), we here in Santa Clara County did fairly well in the past 12 months: the median price of our homes increased by 17%! I am quite certain that increase was largely fueled by the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit Incentive program.

We went from $515,000 in November 2008 to $605,000 in November 2009. (Chart A)  That is certainly a step in the right direction towards price stabilization on the one hand, but a bit disconcerting because the affordability index has now fallen for two consecutive quarters and is now on a declining slope.   (Chart B)

I personally don’t believe it is in our best interest to get back to the peak prices of April 2007 when the median home price reached $868,410 (Chart C) and only about 25% of the first time homebuyers in California could afford to buy a median priced home (keep in mind that the median price in California is significantly less than Santa Clara County).  As the data in Chart C demonstrates, the median home price is inversely proportionate to the Affordability Index.   It is better for us to have lower prices so more people can afford to become home owners.  But regardless of what I think, the market will dictate prices.   We will see next year how the market reacts to the changing economic factors.